Kunlun Trust Development Research Weekly Information No. 177

Research Results
2014/11/04 14:54


Interpretation of the State Council 2014 No. 43

On September 23, the General Office of the State Council released document No. 43 of 2014, namely "Measures for the Disposal and Disposal of Debt of Local Governmental Inventories (Draft for Comment," "Measures": Accelerating the Establishment of a Standardized Financing Mechanism for Debt Financing by Local Governments, Government and business boundaries, government debt can only be borrowed by the government and its departments, not by the enterprises and institutions, etc. Peel the government financing function of the financing platform company, the financing platform company may not add government debt.

The implementation of the Measures will have a certain impact on the trust and cooperation business of trust companies. However, at the same time, No. 43 also proposed to "promote the use of the mode of cooperation between government and social capital and encourage social capital to participate in the investment and operation of public welfare undertakings such as urban infrastructure through franchising, etc." This is an opportunity for the trust. As a result, the mainstream of future financial letter financing model or from the current BT to PPP (public-private partnership).

First, the history of the birth of article 43

As far back as the end of 2012, the four ministries and commissions jointly issued Circular No. 463, "Circular on Suppressing Financing of Illegal Activities by Local Governments," stipulating that local governments shall not charge or pledge state-owned assets for the financing of other units or enterprises and shall not charge other units Or corporate finance to provide security. Affected by this, some trust companies in the industry systematically tightened the pace of development of collective trusts. Even so, information disclosed by various trust companies in 2013 shows that there are 24 founding trusts in the overall size of more than 30% of the total scale. Among them, Anglo-Saxon, Aijian and Zijin accounted for more than 50% %. In contrast, Moody's, an international rating agency, evaluated the debts of various regions and showed that the national average of the ratio of government debt to the region's GDP was 31.4%. There are currently 12 government debts in China that exceed the average. Among these, Chongqing and Yunnan A proportion of more than 50%, Guizhou, nearly 80%. Thus, one side is a huge debt pressure, while one is limited solvency, the contradiction between the two has become increasingly prominent.

Second, 43 text on the BT project touch and outlet

According to the provisions of the New Deal, the city voted as the mainstay of local financial financing model will be broken. Stripping off the platform company is equivalent to cutting off the mainstream BT financing model now, and the current operating mode of the government letter business is also facing an end. Therefore, the current mainly through the financing platform for the construction of financing projects, there are three main channels after the norms: First, commercial real estate development and other business projects, the government should be decoupled, fully market, debt into general corporate debt; Is a public welfare project that can attract social capital to water and gas supply and garbage disposal. The PPP model will be promoted. Debt will be borrowed and repaid by the project company according to the principle of marketization. The government shall assume concession rights according to prior agreement, Subsidies, reasonable pricing and other responsibilities, does not assume responsibility for debt repayment; Third, it is difficult to attract social capital to participate in the public needs of the government debt, the government bonds issued by the financing.

Third, from BT mode to PPP mode

According to the spirit of Document 43, a "test-taker" of PPP, a new model of infrastructure construction in the trust industry, has also emerged. At present, the existing Minmetals Trust that has tried this model has also emerged. In June this year, Minmetals Trust and Fushun Shen Fu New City Management Committee, the construction of a bureau signed a "Shen Fu Metro government purchase service cooperation framework agreement" to carry out Shen Fu Metro infrastructure. The government, on the basis of the concession agreement, established the "special purpose company" by the three parties. The first CCB office will receive the construction general contracting rights for the construction of resettlement houses and infrastructure projects such as electricity, heat supply, roads and bridges in the region. As an introduced investor, Minmetals Trust entered into the form of equity investment with an investment of 3.588 billion yuan, making it an absolute majority shareholder of the project company. The above model is in full compliance with the provisions of Circular 43, "Investors involved in infrastructure investment and operations in accordance with the principle of market-oriented investment, according to the rules of the agreement alone or with the government set up special purpose company construction and operation of cooperation projects. The government will investors or special The target company shall assume the relevant responsibilities such as franchising rights, reasonable pricing and financial subsidies in accordance with the agreed rules and shall not assume the responsibility of repayment of the debts of the investors or special-purpose companies.

Macro situation

National Bureau of Statistics: China's GDP growth slowed to 7.3% in the third quarter, the lowest level in more than five years

National Bureau of Statistics announced on October 21 that the first three quarters of GDP 41.9908 trillion yuan, according to comparable prices, an increase of 7.4%. In terms of quarters, the first quarter increased by 7.4% from the same period of last year, the second quarter increased by 7.5% and the third quarter increased by 7.3%, the lowest level since the first quarter of 2009. In terms of industries, the added value of the primary industry was 3,799.6 billion yuan, an increase of 4.2% over the same period of last year. The added value of the secondary industry was 18,578.7 billion yuan, up 7.4%. The added value of the tertiary industry was 1.96125 trillion yuan, up 7.9%. From a circular point of view, the gross domestic product in the third quarter increased by 1.9%.

Central Bank: To put 2500-300 billion SLF to 11 banks

According to a number of bank stakeholders, the SLF put SLF to 11 banks, including joint-stock banks and some large-scale city commercial banks, with a total size of 250 billion to 300 billion yuan, and each of them 20 billion yuan, with a term of 3 months Interest rate of not less than 3.5%, not too high. Some banks said in the evening of October 20 that the funds had already arrived. A joint-stock bank general manager of the Ministry of Finance said that these are the money of the banking system should be put on shortly. A source close to the central bank said that the central bank explicitly requested that funds should be used to support the weak links such as agriculture, rural areas and farmers and small and micro-sized enterprises and that the interest rate on loans be lower than the conventional level. At present, liquidity in the market is "ultra-loose" Any expectation of a rise in the market interest rate can be broken.

Central Bank: Tuesday 20 billion 14 days repurchase single-day return of the amount and the amount of the same

On Monday (October 20), PBOC's primary market dealers can declare 14-day and 28-day repurchase, 7-day and 14-day reverse repurchase and three-month demand for central bank bills. This week, the central bank openly repurchased 20 billion and 20 billion of the central bank bills expire without repurchasing. According to this estimation, the central bank will naturally invest 40 billion yuan net this week. Data show that in the open market last week, 20 billion are repurchased and 20 billion of the central bank bills expire, without reverse repo maturity, the central bank open market on Tuesday (October 14) for 20 billion 14 days is back Buy operation, last Thursday (October 16) for 20 billion 14-day repurchase operation, it is estimated that the central bank last week, the amount of funds withdrawn and expired volume was flat.

Central Bank: The future monetary credit growth may be generally declining

October 16, the central bank announced the data, the first three quarters of 2014 social financing scale of 12.84 trillion yuan, 1.12 trillion less than the same period last year. Social financing in September 2014 was 1.05 trillion yuan, an increase of 94.5 billion yuan from the previous month and 359.8 billion yuan less than the same period of last year. As of the end of September, the broad money (M2) balance was 120.21 trillion yuan, up 12.9% over the same period last year, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the end of last month and a decrease of 0.7 percentage point from the end of last year. In September, RMB loans increased by 857.2 billion yuan, an increase of 70.2 billion yuan over the same period of last year.

For financial data, Shengsong Cheng, director of the Central Bank Survey and Statistics Department, said that the current M2 growth rate is still basically within the scope of the expected control targets at the beginning of the year. The money supply is expected to maintain steady growth in the future and remain stable at around 13% of the target range. In addition, we should also see that with the increase in the total economic output and the potential economic slowdown, the future monetary credit growth may overall tend to decline, which should be objectively viewed. At the same time, with the deepening of the market and the acceleration of financial innovation, the factors affecting the money supply are more complicated and the short-term volatility of currencies is increasing. Therefore, it is not appropriate to over-interpret the short-term changes in the money growth rate. In the future, the People's Bank of China will continue to implement a prudent monetary policy. While maintaining a reasonable and moderate increase in the total amount of monetary credit, it will also step up structural adjustment and guide monetary credit toward economic weaknesses and key areas.

Ministry of Finance: List of the first batch of PPP demonstration projects to be announced soon

Recently, Vice Minister of Finance Wang Baoan presided over the second meeting of the Leading Group for Government and Social Capital Cooperation (PPP) work. The next step will be to step up the construction of demonstration projects, determine the list of the first demonstration projects and announce them to the public. At the same time, clarify the PPP financing support policies as soon as possible and promote the standardization of PPP work.

Industry News

Trust financing early winter, real estate trust financing dropped 60%

As the size of trust assets management exceeded RMB1.2 billion, the industry shifted from "expansion of scale" to "prevention of risks", and therefore the circulation of aggregated trusts in the market gradually went into winter. Data show that from October 1 to 22, the aggregate amount of trust financing in the market was only 11.88 billion yuan, a sharp drop of over 60% compared with the same period of last year.

From the investment point of view, the real estate category of the trust group in October financing "shrunk" the most powerful. According to the benefit trust studio data, from October 1 to 22, the real estate collection trust has just set up 13, a total financing of 1.402 billion yuan. The 26 real estate trusts set up in the same period of last year raised funds of 9.363 billion yuan. Although the Central Bank relaxed its credit limit by the end of September to give the market a boost, for some already oversupplied regions or small and medium-sized developers with high debt leverage, the new government's favorable outlook for the short term is still limited. Out of the need for risk prevention, the issuance of real estate class trusts in the fourth quarter or will continue to slow down.

On the other hand, under the new local government bonds, the issuance of infrastructure trusts, another key product in the future of the trust market, is expected to decrease in the future. This is because, with the promulgation of Circular No. 43, qualified local governments will be able to meet their financing needs through bond issuance in the future, so that the quality infrastructure projects will be further reduced. And as financing platforms divest government financing functions, the risk of projects seeking trust financing may increase.

Comments: In the first nine months of 2014, the entire trust market was filled with fears of breaking the rigid payment. The multiple rights protection incidents also put more pressure on trust companies. Regulators also started to limit the issuance of trust products. Trusts The rapid growth of the extensive product has ended, from the data, the current growth rate of trust products has begun to gradually decline, the future is expected to continue downward.

Insurance investment trust size almost double within six months

Recently, China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC) released on its website "CIRC Circular on the Risk of Investment Trust Products of Insurance Companies". The circular shows that as of the end of the second quarter of this year, the balance of the insurance investment trust plan reached 280.5 billion yuan, an increase of 136.3 billion yuan from the end of last year, nearly double the scale.

In fact, the cooperation between trust and insurance is heating up and presents a diversified development trend. Some trust industry believes that the pursuit of cooperation with insurance is one of the development ideas of the trust company, attracting venture capital investment trust plan is only a more elementary model of cooperation with the trust, trust and insurance companies should complement each other and enhance the depth of cooperation And breadth, insurance trust soon to be one of the samples.

According to CIRC's aforesaid circular, as at the end of the second quarter of 2014, 78 insurers (groups) invested 739 trust plans involving 32 trust companies with a cumulative investment balance of 280.5 billion yuan, accounting for 2.99 of the total insurer's total assets at the end of the quarter %, An increase of 76.8 billion yuan or 37.7% from the end of the first quarter, an increase of 136.3 billion yuan or 94.5% over the previous year.

Real estate trust payment risk in the fourth quarter or outbreak

The central bank in late September to relax the credit limit for the market hit a shotgun. However, into the fourth quarter, real estate trust repayment pressure is still not small. Deflation caused by a slowdown in economic growth and the weakness of the real estate market will be the major risk points for the trust industry in the fourth quarter. Loan easing restrictions on the real estate trust market has a slight positive. But for the stock products, the new sales will directly affect the ability of developers behind the return of funds. However, the current market wait and see mood is still strong, it is expected that the real estate trust risk will continue to erupt in the near future.

Air China Trust "Apollo 340 Trust Plan" redemption at risk

Recently, Air China Trust "Apollo 340 Lixing Star City Star Trust Trust Settlement Trust Plan" whether scheduled liquidation by the market attention. Last Friday, AVIC issued a public announcement that the principal and interest of the 200 million yuan trust under the trust project have been fully put in place and will be allocated to investors and beneficiaries in full within the next five working days. In recent days, questions about whether the project can be successfully redeemed will also be resolved immediately.

Wanxiang Trust tries to help environmental public welfare

Wanxiang Trust and the Nature Conservancy (TNC), Alibaba and China Union Financial Co-sponsored the "Summer Youth Camp 2014". The funds raised by the summer camp will all be used as "Universal Trust - China Nature Conservation Trust Fund" for the voluntary contributions to China's natural environment and ecological protection projects. This model is also an innovative attempt by the trust system to help environmental public welfare.

Since October 2013, CITIC Trust has launched a trust in the country's first single land transfer trust, a full year has passed. The benefits of land transfer trust for improving land use efficiency in rural areas, promoting the industrialization and modernization of agricultural operations and boosting farmers' income have been initially shown.

Although the current system of rural land ownership and circulation is still not perfect, many trust companies are optimistic about the prospect of this new thing. According to incomplete statistics, CITIC Trust, Beijing Trust and China Construction Investment Trust officially launched 10 land circulation trusts in the year. Compared with the number of land involved in the transfer of the scale is clearly more compelling. According to incomplete statistics, the land that has already started to circulate and the size of land that is expected to be circulated close to 300,000 mu. In addition, trust companies such as Shun Trust, Fortune Trust and COFCO Trust have also started to study or prepare land trusts.

Last week the trust set up a scale of 70.95 billion yuan, the average expected rate of return 8.63%

According to the latest statistics, a total of 55 collection trust products were set up by 27 trust companies last week (October 13 to October 19). Among them, 28 announced the establishment of the scale, with an average size of 129 million yuan, on an average scale Estimates, the total size of trust products set up last week was 7.095 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.081 billion yuan, a decline of 58.69%. Among them, Minmetals International Trust set up "Zhenjiang New Area Economic Development Corporation creditor liquidity project trust" to raise funds the largest scale, reaching 595600 million.

Judging from the expected rate of return on trust products, a total of 28 new products announced last week have a deadline of 24.61 months, down 4.11 months on a month-on-month basis. Among them, last week a total of 17 newly established products announced the expected rate of return, the average expected rate of return 8.63%, down 1.17 percentage points.

In terms of trust types, there are 27 securities investment trusts established, 10 loans and trusts have been established, 9 other investment trusts have been established, 6 equity investment trusts have been established, 2 investment trusts have been established, and credit investment trusts have been established A

In addition, the expiration of the product, a total of 33 companies last week, 78 trust products due. Among them, the securities investment trust 22; equity investment trust 20; loan trust 11; other investment trust 9; debt investment trust 6; portfolio investment trust 6; equity investment trust 3; financing leasing trust 1 paragraph.

Present: Kunlun Trust Co., Ltd. shareholders, directors, supervisors and senior management

Distribution: CNPC Asset Management Co., Ltd., Kunlun Trust Co., Ltd. departments

Editor: And Jin to feed: Huo Tianxiang proofreading: Lin Yin

Tel: 010-63597713 Post Code: 100033 Address: Beijing Financial Street, No. 1 Jinyaguang Building, Room 716, Block B

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